Освітні програми PhD
Постійне посилання на розділhttps://dspace.krok.edu.ua/handle/krok/108
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Документ Financial support and forecasting of food production using economic description modeling methods(FINTECHALLIANCE LLC, 2021) Rumyk, I.; Laptev, S.; Seheda, S.; Akimova, L.; Akimov, O.; Karpa, V.; Румик, Ігор Іванович; Лаптєв, Сергій МихайловичThe article considers the financial programs used by the state to support food production based on the use of methods of economic descriptive modeling. It is established that the interpretation of the essence and strategy of financing in practice has quite different approaches. It has been proven that the formation of an effective system of financing food production involves the relationship and effective redistribution between different sources of financial resources. It is substantiated that agriculture has all the prerequisites for productivity growth provided that investment in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases and effective budget financing. In this regard, the features of food production based on the use of descriptive modeling capabilities using the software package Statgraphics XVII Centurion. Because of the analysis, it is established that the main parametric criterion, which depends on the level of food production in the country as a whole and individual regions, determines the indicator of agricultural production, quantitative parameters of which are taken as a basis for calculating self-sufficiency, import coverage, calories, consumption, profitability and others. Estimation of this indicator by means of modeling allowed to make the forecast of dynamics of change of its volumes for the next twelve time periods for the purpose of preliminary definition of level of food production. For this purpose, the economic and mathematical tools of estimation of forecast dynamics of change of volumes of agricultural production for the future periods are used. Modeling of the indicator of agricultural production per person per year was carried out by research on the normality of distribution using Kolmogorov Smirnov, Anderson - Darling compliance tests and a modified Kolmogorov - Smirnov test. According to the results of comparative analysis of seventeen different models and five compliance tests, it was found that most of the statistical tests are quadratic model, based on which the projected volumes of agricultural production per person per year and calculated for each forecast year (period) with a reliability of 95% lower and upper limits of the studied indicator. It is established that by 2030 in Ukraine with a high probability the growth trend of agricultural production will continue, and at a high rate. The article outlines the benefits of using economic modeling methods in the study of a particular problemДокумент Modeling the impact of economic indicators on food security(OÜ Scientific Center of Innovative Research, 2021) Rumyk, Ihor; Румик, Ігор ІвановичThe article considers the methods of economic modeling to ensure the security and sustainability of the food supply system. It is justified that this allows to ensure the complementarity of the activities of different entities and to create an appropriate basis for the development of the industry as a whole. It is proved that the quality of the formation of such a base largely depends on the quality of the selected indicators and their compliance with the factors of success in ensuring food security. An integrated approach to the study of food security is applied, its properties, principles and elements as a complex multi-level system structure are disclosed. It is proved that a systematic approach, as a direction of scientific methodology, should be used to study food security problems, since they are complex and non-standard. It is established thattheoretical and methodological approaches to the study of food security should be based on two general scientific approaches such as systemic and integrated. The main parametric criteria level of food security of the country as whole and individual regions is defined. The assessment of agricultural production using the tools of economic-mathematical descriptive modeling is evaluated. At the methodological level, nine components of food security have been identified as a complex system that affect food security. Using the Statgraphics XVII Centurion statistical data analysis software package, a multi-factor model is constructed, the presence and type of relationship between independent variables is verified and established. It is established that due to forecasting agricultural production, linear models are often used. A predictive multi-factorial regression model of the relationship of food security components is built. An ANOVA analysis has been carried out, a hypothesis has been proved on the correlation between changes in agricultural production and household incomes, consumption of bread and bread products, meat and meat products and budget expenditures of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food. The article outlines the benefits of using the methods of economic modeling