Modeling the impact of economic indicators on food security

Abstract

The article considers the methods of economic modeling to ensure the security and sustainability of the food supply system. It is justified that this allows to ensure the complementarity of the activities of different entities and to create an appropriate basis for the development of the industry as a whole. It is proved that the quality of the formation of such a base largely depends on the quality of the selected indicators and their compliance with the factors of success in ensuring food security. An integrated approach to the study of food security is applied, its properties, principles and elements as a complex multi-level system structure are disclosed. It is proved that a systematic approach, as a direction of scientific methodology, should be used to study food security problems, since they are complex and non-standard. It is established thattheoretical and methodological approaches to the study of food security should be based on two general scientific approaches such as systemic and integrated. The main parametric criteria level of food security of the country as whole and individual regions is defined. The assessment of agricultural production using the tools of economic-mathematical descriptive modeling is evaluated. At the methodological level, nine components of food security have been identified as a complex system that affect food security. Using the Statgraphics XVII Centurion statistical data analysis software package, a multi-factor model is constructed, the presence and type of relationship between independent variables is verified and established. It is established that due to forecasting agricultural production, linear models are often used. A predictive multi-factorial regression model of the relationship of food security components is built. An ANOVA analysis has been carried out, a hypothesis has been proved on the correlation between changes in agricultural production and household incomes, consumption of bread and bread products, meat and meat products and budget expenditures of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food. The article outlines the benefits of using the methods of economic modeling