Key Threats to the Financial Security of EU Countries Due to Increased Legal Regulation of the Cryptocurrency Market

Abstract

This article substantiates and tests a methodological approach to hierarchically categorizing key threats to the financial security of EU countries, which arise not only from inadequate cryptocurrency market regulation but also from the dramatic tightening of legal, prudential, reporting, countermeasure, and cyber-operational requirements. The purpose of this article is to develop and test a methodological approach to hierarchical ordering and an integrated assessment of the EU's key financial burdens, which will enable the successful regulation of the crypto-asset market by eliminating causal links between regulatory forces, corporate actions, market reactions, and systemic financial resources. The methodological framework encompasses documentary expert synthesis, the two-round Delphi method, binary dependency and reachability matrices, interpretive structural modeling, the Saaty hierarchy process, combining expert weighting with structural impact, integrated assessment, and scenario analysis. The information base is compiled from EU regulations, materials from ESMA, EBA, the European Commission, academic papers, and open data on WhiteBIT, KUNA, Everstake, Trustee Plus, and Hacken for 2022–2025. Five levels of the hierarchy are established. The underlying drivers are identified as uneven regulatory implementation and rising authorization and compliance costs. The ultimate systemic outcome is a trust shock with potential spillover to the banking, payment, and investment sectors. An integrated assessment revealed high sensitivity of exchange and payment business models, while cybersecurity service providers have low direct exposure but remain critical for mitigating operational risk. Scenario calculations demonstrated that coordinated and proportionate implementation can significantly reduce the overall threat level, while fragmented oversight increases concentration, regulatory arbitrage, and the diversion of activity to less regulated channels.