Assessment of crisis development scenarios at industrial enterprises in the system of strategic planning of anti-crisis management measures

Abstract

The article is devoted to assessing crisis development scenarios at industrial enterprises in the system of strategic planning of anti-crisis measures, building a cognitive model of relationships, and quantitatively reproducing the effects on intermediate results. The study is based on the basic factors, which were designated from X1 to X14, and intermediate indicators, which in turn were designated from O1 to O3 according to the data for the three enterprises selected by us for 2024. The indicators were normalized to dimensionless indices taking into account the direction of utility, then density matrices of relationships, cognitive maps, and separate equations for each enterprise were constructed, which reproduce the impact of the liquidity of the capital structure of interest payments of the revolving cycle of costs and market concentrations on the share of overdue obligations of capacity utilization and short-term solvency. A coordinated procedure for calibrating sensitivities and free terms was proposed, which provides traceability from expert and empirical information to calculation results and allows us to reproduce the recorded values ​​for each of the enterprises selected by us. The paper forms a matrix of strategic alternatives at the intersection of two managed planes: access to financing for anti-crisis measures and the maturity of anti-crisis management and readiness for change. The cross-combination of high and low levels generates four scenarios: optimistic, conservative, moderately optimistic, and pessimistic. Based on four scenarios, specific proposals for anti-crisis management actions have been developed for each enterprise, which can be used by managers and financial managers of industrial enterprises, as well as anti-crisis management consultants.