Аssessment of the probability of bankruptcy in the system of increasing the effectiveness of anti-crisis management of an enterprise

Abstract

oday, due to deep economic transformations, structural shifts, and high volatility of the macro environment, there is an objective need to implement effective anti-crisis analysis tools that allow not only to assess the risks of bankruptcy, but also to timely identify threats to financial security. The article presents the results of logistic modelling of the probability of bankruptcy of machine-building enterprises of Ukraine based on a combination of financial and management indicators in the period after the full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine (2022-2024). The main task was to conduct modelling on the example of five enterprises based on data for 2022-2024; analyse the results obtained, interpret the coefficients of the logit model, and determine the main determinants of the probability of bankruptcy; suggest areas for improvement. The paper substantiates the feasibility of including in the model both quantitative indicators (liquidity ratio, return on assets, debt level) and qualitative characteristics (availability of an anti-crisis management system, implementation of anti-crisis measures, the fact of a crisis situation). The constructed model allowed for assessing the probability of crisis events at five machine-building enterprises and to form an individual scenario of management response in the financial security system for each of them. The results obtained have practical significance for increasing the level of financial security, strengthening management flexibility, and implementing an early warning system in conditions of economic instability.